PREDICTING FINANCIAL CRISES

September 29, 2009 on 12:42 am | In Economics, Financial, Globalization, History, Research | No Comments

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FRBSF Economic Letter:

Predicting Crises Part II:

Did Anything Matter (to Everybody)?

Researchpubs.sf@sf.frb.org

Mon 9/28/09

Predicting Crises Part II:

Did Anything Matter (to Everybody)?

by Andrew K. Rose and Mark M. Spiegel

The enormity of the current financial collapse raises the question whether the crisis could have been predicted.

This is the second of two Economic Letters on the topic. This Letter examines research suggesting that early warning models would not have accurately predicted the relative severity of the current crisis across countries, casting doubt on the ability of such models to forecast similar crises in the future.

Welcome to the new online edition of FRBSF Economic Letter.

Download attached pdf or read full article

Index of recent Economic Letters

FRBSF Economic Letter:

Predicting Crises Part II: Did Anything Matter (to Everybody)?

read full article

Researchpubs.sf@sf.frb.org

Mon 9/28/09

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