CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP ESSAY: MUSLIMS AND JEWS IN THE WORLD-SYSTEM IN SEPTEMBER 2009

MUSLIMS AND JEWS IN THE WORLD-SYSTEM IN SEPTEMBER 2009

The Long View of the Current “Global Traffic Jam”

We have already described how Muslims and Jews were “twisted up” by the colonial experience, using Algeria 1830-1962 as  one example.

MUSLIMS AND JEWS IN THE WORLD SYSTEM: THE EXAMPLE OF ALGERIA (1830-1962)

http://cambridgeforecast.wordpress.com/2008/04/26/muslims-and-jews-in-the-world-system-the-example-of-algeria/

See also: http://www.cambridgeforecast.org

“Muslims and Jews in the World-System”

The question becomes: how does this “triple helix” of Muslims, Jews, Western Imperialism, come out today in 2009.

The answer is:

There are two radical “anti-system” groupings, one Jewish, one Muslim that want to overturn the world:

1. Al-Qaida
2. Neocon/Zionists (who brought us the Iraq War and now want the Iran War)

The “empire” now represented by America, senses that it needs to move into a kind of developmental/ G-20 Summit/ Third World growth direction but is blocked from this avenue because:

1. Washington policy is still fundamentally under the control of Israel and the neocons who want America/Israel to subjugate the world (Bush-Cheney were the crystallization of this fantasy)
2. the American “political class” under Obama still believes that there might be a cheap neocolonial way to extract dominion and economic benefits from the Third World although the economic meltdown has made this option confused and murky.

In other words, the US keeps entering and re-entering a “global traffic jam” created by the neocons/Israel alliance resonating with the last stand of American colonial attitudes which have replaced their French and British predecessors.

The hinge or pivot of a new world direction is of course Palestine because it is the global symbol of neocolonial subjugation, dispossession, ethnic cleansing and land-grabbing.

Globalization made practical needs a post-Zionist lens and framework.

Until and unless President Obama comes to grip with this reality, there cannot be a successful global coordination which would break out of the current “global traffic jam.”

That means a nonstable world-economy ad infinitum.

MUSLIMS AND JEWS IN THE WORLD-SYSTEM IN SEPTEMBER 2009

The Long View of the Current “Global Traffic Jam”

NETANYAHU BRAIN TRUST

‘Strategic thought team’to advise

Netanyahu’s new government‏

on behalf of imra@netvision.net.il

Sun 3/15/09

‘Strategic thought team’ to advise

Netanyahu’s new government

By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent

Last update – 15/03/2009

www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1071050.html

In addition, Asa will present the administration with three recommendations:
stepping up negotiating efforts with Syria as a cornerstone for a regional peace agreement, changing government offices (in particular, moving the Finance Ministry’s budget division to the Prime Minister’s Office to help set the national agenda) and developing a national security project for developing drones, which will not only bolster national security but will also find work for unemployed high-tech professionals.

‘Strategic thought team’ to advise

Netanyahu’s new government‏

on behalf of imra@netvision.net.il

Sun 3/15/09

RUSSIA IRAN QATAR GAS TROIKA

eMEESHeadlines

MEESHeadlines 27 October 2008

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Mon 10/27/08

“Big Gas Troika” Formed By Russia, Iran And Qatar To Coordinate Gas Policy

In a historic meeting in Tehran on 21 October, the world’s three largest natural gas reserves holders – Russia, Iran and Qatar, which together control 60% of global proven gas resources – came to a far-reaching agreement to coordinate their gas policies on a regular basis.

VOL. LI – No. 43, 27 October 2008

TOP STORIES

Global LNG Glut Hides Mid-Term Supply Crunch As Producers Shun New Projects

A potential glut in the global LNG market in the coming years is welcome news for major gas consumers, especially in Europe, where the region’s worsening economic outlook and costly environmental targets require cheap clean fuel.

“Big Gas Troika” Formed By Russia, Iran And Qatar To Coordinate Gas Policy

In a historic meeting in Tehran on 21 October, the world’s three largest natural gas reserves holders – Russia, Iran and Qatar, which together control 60% of global proven gas resources – came to a far-reaching agreement to coordinate their gas policies on a regular basis.

Baghdad Structures Upstream Opening To Maximize Participation

International oil companies bidding in Iraq’s first post-invasion upstream bidding round will be prevented from taking on operatorship of any more than one of the eight blocks on offer, MEES learns.

Interbank Rates Off Highs But Elevated, Global Rout Pressures Equities

Injections of cash into some Gulf banking systems last week helped interbank rates ease off their previous highs, but they still remain elevated, suggesting that it will take more government money to allow normal lending practices between banks to resume.

Israel Faces Power Crunch, As Gas Supplies Dwindle

Israel is facing the most severe electricity crisis since its establishment 60 years ago, according to one of the country’s leading energy analysts.

MEES Agenda:

OPEC Meets To Address Global Economic Turmoil

OPEC ministers arrived in Vienna last week amid unprecedented global financial turmoil and mounting evidence of an oil demand collapse. As MEES went to press, it was a near certainty that a cut would be announced at their 24 October emergency meeting: the question was over the extent of any output reduction and its presentation.

ENERGY FUNDAMENTALS

• Crude Oil Prices Continue To Lose Ground Despite Expected OPEC Production Cut

• High Prices And Gloomy Economic Outlook Bear Down On Crude Demand, Says CGES

• Reduced Oil Prices Spark GCC-Price Hawk Rivalry, Says Barclays Capital

• Societe Generale Sees OPEC Production Cut Of 1Mn B/D, Significant Global Slowdown

• Crude Oil Formulas/Posted Prices ($/B)

POLITICAL COMMENT

• No Agreement On SOFA

OP-ED & DOCUMENTS

Suggested Parameters For Development Of Oil And Gas Fields In Iraq By Falah al-Khawaja

OPEC Production Cut Will Not Impact Oil Price By William R Edwards

NEWS BY COUNTRY

ALGERIA

• Force Majeure On Some Algerian LNG Shipments ‘Since June’ Due To Corrosion On Gasline

BAHRAIN

• NOGA Signs MOU For LNG Terminal Study In Bahrain

CASPIAN

• Azerbaijan’s ACG Production To Be Restored By End-November, Gas Export Talks Due

• Kazakhstan And Russia Agree To Expand Atyrau-Samara Oil Pipeline

• Construction Of Burgas-Alexandroupolis Oil Pipeline Delayed By A Year

IRAN

• Ahmadinejad To Postpone VAT Introduction For One Year

• NIORDC Head Replaced As Ahmadinejad Tightens Control Over Petroleum Sector

• Azadegan And Darquain Phase 2 Development Due On-Stream By End-1Q09

• Kazakh Oil Swaps Expansion Played Down By Masimov

JORDAN

• Jordan Announces Fourth Reduction In Product Prices Since July

• Capital Intelligence Affirms Jordan’s Sovereign Ratings

KUWAIT

• NBK Adjusts Kuwait Budget Forecast On KEC Fall

LEBANON

• Lebanon Confident It Can Reschedule Maturing Public Debt In 2009

LIBYA

• Libya Raises Its Stake In Italy’s UniCredit To 4.23%

QATAR

• Qatar’s UK LNG Regasification Terminal Hit By Further Start-Up Delays

SAUDI ARABIA

• Saudi Aramco Pursues 50,000 B/D Dammam Redevelopment

• Saudi Refinery Plans Not Impacted By Financial Crisis

• SABIC Sees First Profit Fall In Two Years

SUDAN

• Nine Chinese Oil Workers Abducted In Abyei

SYRIA

• ‘Alaw Says Egyptian Gas Throughput Rises To 1.2Mn CMD

• Syria To Raise Domestic Fuel Oil Price By 50%

TUNISIA

• IMF Puts Tunisia’s Real GDP Growth In 2007 At 6.3%

UAE

• UAE Considers Issuing Government Bonds In 2010 Onwards

YEMEN

• Total Farms Into Onshore Block 70 With KNOC

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MEESHeadlines 27 October 2008

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Mon 10/27/08

ISRAELIZATION OF AMERICAN POLITICAL LEADERS

The Jerusalem Connection International

P.O. Box 20295- Washington, DC- 20041

Phone: 703-707-0014-  Fax-703-707-9514

Email: info@tjci.org

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Jerusalem Connection

E-news: Preemption or Apocalypse‏

Fri 8/22/08uc

Former Arkansas governor and candidate for U.S. President Mike Huckabee said: “There are many, many places where a homeland for the Palestinians could in fact take place that would be consistent with their roots, but there is only one place on earth where the Jewish people could have a homeland that is consistent with their roots. … the international community agreed to recognize clear, definitive boundaries of a Jewish homeland in Israel as early as 1919. … We have a moral obligation to the Jewish people to honor the commitment that has been made through decades and decades of understanding that there is going to be a homeland for the Jewish people, the question shouldn’t be ‘Do Arabs have a right to live in Jewish territory, but, ‘Do Jews have a right to live in Jewish territory?’”

God says: “I will surely gather them from all the lands where I bansih them in my furious anger and great wrath; I will bring them back to this place and let them live in safety. They will be my people, and I will be their God. I will give them singleness of heart and action, so that they will always fear me for their own good and the good of their children after them. I will make an everlasting covenant with them: I will never stop doing good to them, and I will inspire them to fear me so that they will never turn away  from me. I will rejoice in doing them good and will most assuredly plant them in this land with all my heart and soul.” (Jeremiah 32:37-41).

The Jerusalem Connection: Pray that the upcoming elections will produce political leaders with the same moral clarity as Govenor Huckabee regarding Israel and the Palestinians. Humanly speaking, the future of both Israel and the United States  may well depend on how the U.S. leadership treats Israel. While those who bless Israel will be blessed, those who curse Israel will be cursed. (Genesis 12:3).

If you haven’t already, please add your signature to the “Resolution Regarding Israel” for Senator John McCain.

The True Human Meanings of A Nuclear Iran
Choices Still Open to Israel: Preemption or Apocalypse
By Louis René Beres, The Jewish Press

For many years, any talk of preemption against a nuclearizing Iran was certain to elicit primarily harsh and uniform condemnation. In some circles, such talk amounted to nothing less than a shamelessly proposed “aggression.” Other critics, although somewhat more charitable in their particular denunciations, still expressed guarded sentiments that any Israeli or American defensive first-strikes against Iran would be “premature.”

Now, finally, several authoritative figures are speaking plainly about the stark choices still open to Israel: preemption or apocalypse. Early in July, Meir Amit, a former director of Mossad, spoke unambiguously of Israel’s imperative to use military force against Iran. Nothing else, said Amit, could any longer stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. In the best of all possible worlds, the United States would already have stepped up to the plate in the matter of Iran, but – for a variety of both political and geostrategic reasons – this did not happen.

The more things change; the more they remain the same. Once again, Israel stands alone in the world. Further, all of this talk about Iran has been either strategic and/or jurisprudential. Little or none of it, however, has focused on what – in distinctly human terms – would be the probable outcome of an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel. Moreover, we already know Iran’s public position – in essence, drawn from Tehran itself – which Israel lacks even the minimal right to endure.

The Jerusalem Connection International

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EE-news: Preemption or Apocalypse‏

Jerusalem Connection

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Fri 8/22/08ucatealem Connection Int’l

GAS EXPORTS IRAN TURKEY

Iran Boosts Gas Exports to Turkey

Sat, 16 Aug 2008

Iran Boosts Gas Exports to Turkey

TEHRAN (FNA)-

Iran increased its gas exports to Turkey after the Russia-Georgia conflict disrupted supplies from Azerbaijan.

British Petroleum announced on Tuesday that it had closed a natural gas pipeline running from the Azerbaijani field of Shakh-Deniz to Georgia and Turkey over concerns of a military conflict between Moscow and Tbilisi.

Reuters quoted a senior source from the Turkish pipeline company, Botas, as saying on Tuesday that the company would increase gas imports from Iran in order to compensate for a reduction in Azerbaijani supplies.

Iran previously exported 12 million cubic meters to Turkey per day but has increased its daily export to 19 million cubic meters since Wednesday,  an official in Botas was reported as saying.

Iran possesses the world’s second-largest gas reserves after Russia. Turkey has been a consumer of Iranian gas since 2001.

Head of economic affairs at the Iranian embassy in Turkey, Ahmad Noorani, said last week that Tehran and Ankara had agreed on the details of a deal to export Iran’s natural gas to Turkey.

He added that the deal is expected to be finalized during Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Turkey.

See:

Iran Boosts Gas Exports to Turkey

News number: 870526058518:37 | 2008-08-16 Economy

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8705260585

Iran Boosts Gas Exports to Turkey

Sat, 16 Aug 2008

IRAN: GOZAAR

New on Gozaar‏

on behalf of info (info@GOZAAR.ORG)

Gozaar Mailing List (GOZAAR@LISTSERV.FHLISTS.ORG)

Wed 8/06/08

Dear Readers,

Take a look at Gozaar’s new and exciting articles and interviews.  Here is a selection of our new material:

Interview with One of Iran’s Best-Known Intellectuals

In his longest interview since leaving Iran, Ramin Jahanbegloo tells Gozaar about Iran’s relationship with the West and the West’s political and philosophical connections with its counterparts.  Jahanbegloo also explores the meaning of a “global civil society,” working toward an answer to the peaceful struggles of people and cultures.  Don’t forget to catch the second part of his interview with Gozaar here.

Mehrdad Mashayekhi: An Eye for the Citizens

Author Mehrdad Mashayekhi dismantles the difference between national and personal interests and proposes means of intertwining them for the benefit of Iranian citizens in his interview.  He also explains how in Iran, where educational systems and the mass media are government-run, these institutions shape public conceptions and opinions, serving government interests instead of national interests.

Arash Kamangir: Dinosaur Blogging

Iranian student blogger Arash Kamangir details the current trends in today’s crowded blogosphere.  In this new era of blogging, Kamangir writes that content is not only text-based but includes images and videos as well.

Forgotten Prisoners in Rajayee Shahr

The media’s coverage of the horrors in Evin Prison overshadows the abysmal conditions in Rajayee Shahr, its counterpart prison in Karaj.  In his article, Behnam Nasimifahr describes the dire straits within the prison walls of Rajayee Shahr, where even some Evin prisoners are transferred to as a form of punishment.

Remembering a Massacre

Kaveh Shahrooz writes about the twentieth anniversary of the forgotten 1988 massacre of Iranian political leaders.  He summarizes the story of the 1988 massacre to commemorate the victims and ensure their deaths were not in vain. Shahrooz also discusses the relevancy of this twenty-year-old crime today and outlines a blueprint for future action.

Gozaar has been filtered by the Iranian government.  To access Gozaar in Iran, please either use one of the alternate domain names, such as www.soraya5.org or www.tahmineh6.org, or make use of a circumvention tool such as FreeGate.  FreeGate is a free software that allows secure web-browsing. FreeGate does not automatically encrypt traffic, so it will require some setup.  More information can be found at their website, http://www.dit-inc.us.

As always, please contact us at info@gozaar.org if you have suggestions for improving Gozaar, wish to contribute an article, or want to recommend important works or information for translation into Persian.

With best wishes,

The Gozaar Team

New on Gozaar‏

on behalf of info (info@GOZAAR.ORG)

Gozaar Mailing List (GOZAAR@LISTSERV.FHLISTS.ORG)

Wed 8/06/08

RENDEZVOUS OF CIVILIZATIONS VERSUS CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS

Robert Kagan and Norman Podhoretz and other unrepentant and “slinky” neocon/Zionists have now taken John McCain to bed ideologically as they once took Bush to bed.

They fundamentally want to “upend” the current world system of alliances and drive events to an Isra-American world system and alliance which will subjugate the world for the benefit of themselves and Israel.

They use Churchillian phrases but have Hitlerian designs and are not “Wilsonians” but represent a radical-Right agenda of world war, “world on fire” or Robert Kaplan’s hidden wish for the “coming anarchy.”

These same radical-Right revolutionaries are now allied with Joseph Lieberman in an intense and unrelenting effort to get America into a war with Iran, hoping that will finally ignite a global anti-Muslim clash of civilizations on a planetary scale.

It is obvious that Kagan and company are endlessly hostile to Obama and to intellectual globalists like Fareed Zakaria, whose “The Post-American World” is in fact being brought about by the Zionist neocons like Kagan, Podhoretz, Feith, Ledeen, Kristol, Wurmser etc.

The fundamental paralysis and distortion of the Bush/Cheney White House is that they wanted to get to Zakaria-ism via neoconservatism because their polices were always gripped by Zionofear.

Thus the Bush/Cheney years have been years characterized by “Orwello-Zionism” such as the phrase “Sharon is a man of peace’ while the truth is that Sharon has been leading Israel’s Palestinian massacres for half a century including Sabra and Shattila in Lebanon in the 1980s.

Zionofear and Orwello-Zionism

See also:

“POST-AMERICAN WORLD” CAUSED BY THE ISRAELIZATION OF WASHINGTON? « Cambridge Forecast Group Blog

"POST-AMERICAN WORLD" CAUSED BY THE ISRAELIZATION OF WASHINGTON?

On May 8, 2008, National Public Radio’s “On Point” show featured

“Israel at 60” followed by “The Post-American World”

What nobody sees or wants to see is that these two topics are two sides of a coin: it’s the Israelization of Washington and hence world policy, pushed by the neocons/Zionist “conveyor belt,” which has brought America to this condition.

These neocon/Zionists took Bush, Rumsfeld and Cheney “to bed” ideologically and brought us the Iraq War. They hope to plunge the whole world into a civil war radiatng out of Iraq. Senator Joe Lieberman and Podgoretz and the neoxon group wirepulling John McCain are ardently pushing for Iraq II with Iran.

In other words the prospect of America’s eclipse is intimately tied up with Israel and its neocon agents.

The media “bafflegab” tries to hide this interlinking with endless apologetics for Israel’s colonial settler state ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians and the endless ‘false flag” operations in Lebanon with endless murders.

Thursday, May 08, 2008 10-11AM ET

NPR

http://www.onpointradio.org/

Israel at 60: Life Beyond the Headlines

As Israel turns 60, we talk with two thought-provoking writers — Bernard Avishai, author of “The Hebrew Republic,” and Etgar Keret, one of Israel’s top young writers and filmmakers — about the country’s unique identity and its way ahead.

Fareed Zakaria: The Post-American World

We talk with global big-thinker Fareed Zakaria about how and whether America can lead in this century.

Israel at 60:Life Beyond the Headlines

Thursday, May 08, 2008 10-11AM ET

By host Tom Ashbrook

By the Hebrew calendar, today marks the 60th anniversary of the creation of Israel in 1948. And Israel has been celebrating, with picnics and parties and warplanes on display.

Of course, Arabs call the events of 1948 the “naqba” — or catastrophe.

But it’s Israel’s birthday. We’ll observe today with one of the hottest writers of a new generation of Israeli writers, Etgar Keret.

And with an American-Jewish resident of the U.S. and Jerusalem, Bernard Avishai, who says it’s time for the Jewish state to become what he calls the “Hebrew Republic.”

This hour, On Point: Israel turns sixty.

.Bernard Avishai, consulting editor at the Harvard Business Review, former professor at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center in Israel, and author of the new book “The Hebrew Republic: How Secular Democracy and Global Enterprise Will Bring Israel Peace at Last”

· Etgar Keret, author of the story collection “The Girl on the Fridge” and director of the award-winning film “Jellyfish.”

Fareed Zakaria: The Post-American World

Aired: Thursday, May 08, 2008 11-12PM ET

Global big thinker Fareed Zakaria is out with his latest big book, and the title almost says it all: It’s “The Post-American World.”

Take a look at the world and it’s not hard to see: the world’s tallest buildings, biggest airplane, biggest investment fund, biggest movie industry, biggest refinery, biggest casino — heck, the world’s biggest ferris wheel –none of them are in the USA anymore.

So, is it all over over for Uncle Sam? Not if we play our cards right, says Zakaria.

This hour, On Point: Fareed Zakaria and the post-American world.

Fareed Zakaria, columnist and editor of

Newsweek International.

His new book is “The Post-American World.”

On May 8, 2008, National Public Radio’s “On Point” show featured

“Israel at 60” followed by “The Post-American World”

CAIRO-RIYADH-DAMASCUS

Dayan Center

TEL AVIV NOTES

TEL AVIV NOTES – “The Broken

Triangle”

dayancenter (dayancen@POST.TAU.AC.IL)

Sun 3/09/08

dayancenter (dayancen@POST.TAU.AC.IL)

DAYAN-CENTER@LISTSERV.TAU.AC.IL

The Broken Triangle:

Cairo-Riyadh-Damascus

Bruce Maddy-Weitzman

Just over two weeks remain before the annual Arab summit conference is scheduled to be held in Damascus. Preparations are well under way: invitations have been issued to the heads of 20 Arab states and the Palestinian Authority, hotel and villa space has been reserved, and the new international conference center (built, ironically, thanks to the generosity of the late Rafiq al-Hariri, whose assassins’ trail leads right into the heart of the Syrian leadership hierarchy) is being given a last shine. However, the fate of the gathering remains uncertain, owing to the unresolved political crisis in Lebanon, which pits the US and Saudi-backed “March 14th” coalition majority against the Syrian and Iranian-backed “March 8th” opposition, and has left Lebanon without a President since mid-November. Arab League Secretary-General (and former Egyptian foreign minister) `Amru Musa has repeatedly failed in his efforts to mediate an end to the Lebanese imbroglio. Consequently, both Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah and Egypt’s President Husni Mubarak are indicating that they may absent themselves from the summit, in order to deliver a sharp symbolic blow to its host, Syria’s President Bashar al-Asad. Once again, Lebanon has become a cockpit of regional and inter-Arab tensions. Once again, Syria stands opposed to the majority of Arab states on key regional issues. More than ever, the “Arab world” appears to be a motley and fragmented collection of states nervously trying to protect their particular interests within a regional constellation in which the preponderance of power is held by non-Arab states – Iran, Turkey and Israel.

Over the last 35 years, the status of the Cairo-Riyadh-Damascus triangle has been a key barometer in evaluating the vicissitudes of the inter-Arab system. When the three capitals were aligned with one another on central issues, their common policies produced tangible results with considerable regional impact: the 1973 war coalition against Israel, the 1976 end to the first phase of the civil war in Lebanon and a renewed common position regarding Arab-Israeli diplomacy, the 1989 Ta’if accord determining the parameters of Lebanon’s renewal, the 1990-91 anti-Saddam coalition and support for the Madrid conference, and the 2002 “Arab initiative” specifying the terms for a comprehensive peace agreement with Israel. More often than not, however, relations between the three countries were fraught with suspicion and disagreement, undermining the prospects of a coherent Arab bloc which could exert influence in regional affairs. Egypt’s decision to pursue a separate peace with Israel in the late 1970s was a historic departure from past Arab policies, and a decade would pass before Arab states would officially acquiesce and fully restore Egypt to the Arab fold. Syria’s domination of Lebanon for three decades was never looked upon kindly by other Arab states, let alone in present times, for Syria has enabled the non-Arab, Shi’ite Islamic Republic of Iran to gain an important foothold there, and thus immensely complicate regional affairs.

Syria’s embrace of Iran goes back to the February 1979 Islamic revolution and overthrow of the pro-American and pro-Israeli Shah, heralding a tectonic shift in regional fault lines, and providing Syria with a potentially important regional ally vis-a-vis Israel, the West, and Arab rivals. Many analysts continue to point to what they view as an unnatural and “unholy” alliance between an ethnically Persian Iran ruled by Shi’ite clerics and a secular Arab nationalist Syrian regime which claims to embody “the beating heart of Arabism.” But this alliance has proven to be extremely durable, providing Syria with important economic assistance and strategic backup, while Iran has acquired found a valuable Arab ally which legitimated its entry into the region. The immediate consequence of the alliance was Syria’s support for non-Arab Iran in its war against Arab Iraq between 1980-88, notwithstanding this violation of a cardinal principle of Arabism; as the war shifted in Iran’s favor, Syria’s President Hafiz al-Asad found himself increasingly isolated from other Arab states. However, Asad the father always played a delicate balancing game, avoiding too close an embrace of Iran while pursuing a “half-open door policy”, keeping his options open as much as possible towards fellow Arab states, Iran, and even Turkey and Israel.

Under Bashar al-Asad, however, the tone and tenor of Syrian foreign policy has shifted, becoming more strident and less nuanced. To be sure, Syria signed on to the Arab peace initiative at the Beirut summit in 2002, albeit not before employing extremely inflammatory rhetoric towards Yasir Arafat and insisting on uncompromising language regarding the possible resettlement of Palestinian refugees. Syria also reconfirmed its adherence to the initiative at the 2007 Riyadh Arab summit, and reluctantly joined a broad Arab coalition at the US-sponsored Annapolis conference in fall 2007 designed to restart the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. However, the primary focus of its foreign policy has remained Lebanon, to the acute distress of other Arab states. The February 2005 assassination of Hariri, the periodic killings of other anti-Syrian Lebanese figures, and Syria’s continued efforts to maintain its domination there, even after being forced by the international community to officially withdraw its military forces, has left an especially bad taste in Saudi and Egyptian mouths. The convergence of the Lebanese and Iranian tracks of Syrian foreign policy came in summer 2006, with the Hizballah-Israeli war. Sunni Arab governments, led by Riyadh, Cairo and Amman were incensed over what they understood to be the geo-political underpinnings of the war, pitting an ever-more emboldened Iran against Israel in a battle for regional advantage at the expense of the Lebanese, with dire implications for other Arab states. Bashar’s scornful characterization of other Arab leaders as “half-men” added insult to injury. Since then, Syria’s support of the Iranian-Hizballah axis, reinforced by other allies in the Lebanese mosaic, has led Lebanon to its current impasse, placing it on the brink of renewed internal conflagration. Consequently, Syrian-Saudi relations have reached an unprecedented low point, with open Saudi expressions of support for former Syrian Vice President Khaddam’s efforts to mobilize an opposition movement, the recalling of the Saudi ambassador from Damascus for consultations, and Riyadh’s warning to its citizens to leave Lebanon. Syrian-Egyptian relations have now reached a new low as well, as Egypt has accused Syria of pressing Hamas and Islamic Jihad to reject Egyptian efforts to broker a Gaza ceasefire, so that escalating violence in Gaza takes the spotlight off of Syrian responsibility for the Lebanese impasse.

But Bashar al-Asad seems unphased by the rumblings from Riyadh and Cairo, determined to maintain his close strategic relations with Iran and unwilling to countenance a political settlement in Lebanon which does not give his allies there veto power over governmental decisions. As such, he is endangering the success of the summit which he is preparing to host (it would be the first all-Arab summit ever held in Damascus). His willingness to take such a risk speaks volumes of the diminished symbolic capital to be earned through the hosting of a successful summit, and of the declining importance of even paying lip service to a broad Arab consensus on major issues. Truth be told, Syria has always claimed to be the best representative of fundamental norms of Arabism, but has more often than not found itself ranged against a majority Arab coalition on key issues. Now, it seems that even arguing about collective Arab norms is no longer deemed to have much value by either Syria or its Arab opponents. Without those norms as markers to help shape their policies, and without meaningful leverage from either Cairo or Riyadh on Damascus, the Arab system is more adrift than ever, with key states unable to forge meaningful coalitions to check Iran’s bid for increased regional power. Even if the forthcoming Damascus summit does take place in the end, this underlying reality is unlikely to change any time soon.

TEL AVIV NOTES is published with the support of the V. Sorell Foundation

Previous editions of TEL AVIV NOTES can be accessed at www.dayan.org, under “Commentary”.

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TEL AVIV NOTES – “The Broken Triangle”

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Sun 3/09/08

OBAMA AND PALESTINIANS

Obama rejects Palestinian right of

return – reaffirms support for

Israel

montrealmuslimnews-owner@lists.riseup.net

on behalf of Montreal Muslim News (montrealnews@gmail.com)

Tue 1/29/08

list (montrealmuslimnews@lists.riseup.net)

Obama rejects Palestinian right of return

Presidential candidate presents views on Mideast in talk with Israeli, Jewish journalists; senator reaffirms support for Israel, says he backs dialogue with Iran

see:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3499906,00.html

www.montrealmuslimnews.net

Whatever Allah wills is, and whatever Allah does not will is not.

montrealmuslimnews

Obama rejects Palestinian right of return –

reaffirms support for Israel

montrealmuslimnews-owner@lists.riseup.net

on behalf of Montreal Muslim News (montrealnews@gmail.com)

Tue 1/29/08

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feeback at: montrealnews@gmail.com

Listen to Caravan, produced by Samaa Elibyari, every Wednesday from 2-3 PM:

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Tue 1/29/08