CFG LOGO

May 8, 2010 on 6:58 am | In Economics, Financial, Globalization, History, Research, World-System | Comments Off on CFG LOGO

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Visit: Main Blog: Cambridge Forecast Group Blog

CFG: "Unsustainable Patterns of World Economic Growth" 1998

October 12, 2008 on 4:30 am | In Economics, Financial, Globalization, History, Research | No Comments

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CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP

Unsustainable Patterns of World Economic Growth

http://www.geocities.com/lance_feiner/

GLOBALIZATION AND THE CURRENT CRISIS 1998

A Handbook for Progressive Policy Makers

(By the Green Policy Group of The Other Economic Summit)

More precisely, from 1985 to the present, the US has been imposing a series of unsustainable economic and financial bubbles on various regions of the world successively (first Japan and Europe, then Asia, then Latin America, then China, etc.) in order to satisfy its insatiable demand for exports. Countries and regions have been overwhelmed by floods of outside capital, which they had neither the social nor economic institutions to deal with. A more viable policy would be the promotion of economic growth in more areas of the world simultaneously, but at a slower and more sustainable pace. Africa and the Arab world should not be written off as

CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP: OVERVIEW

September 22, 2008 on 5:21 pm | In Books, Economics, Financial, Globalization, History, Middle East, Research, Science & Technology, Third World, USA, World-System | No Comments

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CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP

Analyzing globalization, the Middle East & the world-system

CFG Intro

About CFG

CFG Today

CFG Tomorrow

Home

Middle East

Globalization

Economic Data

Background Essays

Blogs

The West & the Third World

Muslims & Jews in the World-System

Economic & Corporate Data

CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP

CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP: WORLD ECONOMY BIG

PREDICTION

CFG INTRO: MAIN WEBSITE COPY

September 24, 2013 on 1:35 pm | In History | Comments Off on CFG INTRO: MAIN WEBSITE COPY

CFG was founded in the late 1970

CFG TOMORROW: MAIN WEBSITE COPY

September 24, 2013 on 1:33 pm | In History | Comments Off on CFG TOMORROW: MAIN WEBSITE COPY

CFG Tomorow: Thinking About the Future January 2006

We have seen in “CFG Intro,” “About CFG,” and “CFG Today”, as shown on our home page, that the world system is “stumbling” towards a world economy driven by Third World development and not American-lead Western consumption.

The world is of course not a person or living thing and cannot “stumble” in a normal sense, since the world has a body politic but not a body.

By “stumble” we mean that the “actors” in the world are themselves only dimly aware of where they are and what they are presiding over and many of them

CFG TODAY: MAIN WEBSITE COPY

September 24, 2013 on 1:29 pm | In CFG, Globalization, History, World-System | Comments Off on CFG TODAY: MAIN WEBSITE COPY

The CFG Perspective Applied to Today:

Professor Martin Feldstein of Harvard is one of the most influential economists in the world and was Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisors chief in the early 1980’s. As head of the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge Massachusetts), he was instrumental in placing top-level Presidential advisors such as Lawrence Lindsey in 2001 and Gregory Mankiw, who left recently.

When the 1997/8 Asian baht crisis hit, followed by the Russian “GKO” crisis in August ’98, Feldstein was asked by a TV reporter to explain what was happening and he blanched and said, “I don’t really know.” “I have no idea.”

The CFG explanation of why Feldstein could not have known is the following:

Typical of the 1973-2008 structural system-crisis, such as we are in, the complexity of the global economy increases exponentially while the ability to understand the data and architecture grows arithmetically. Thus a gap opens and it gets wider.

Economists like Feldstein use data sets derived from the following sorts of sources:

  1. The Fed Greenbook for real GDP began in 1965.
    Greenbook Data Sets (Updated through the Greenbook Forecast of December 1999)
    Several data sets contain the projections from the Greenbooks of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
    The Greenbook is produced before each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
    Using an assumption about monetary policy, the Research staff at the Board of Governors prepares projections about how the economy will fare in the future.
    These projections are made available to the public after a lag of five years.
    See: http://www.phil.frb.org/publicaffairs/index.html

ABOUT CFG

September 24, 2013 on 1:27 pm | In CFG, History, World-System | Comments Off on ABOUT CFG

About CFG (Cambridge Forecast Group):

In a structural system-crisis, such as we are now in, the usual diagnoses and forecasts are useless since a structural system-crisis means that the textbooks and experts are suddenly all wrong.

This is true for the entire 1973-2008 period.

The purpose of CFG is to explain this structural system-crisis and introduce a unique kind of forecasting based on long-term historical trends.

Economic globalization, for example, first shows up in the data in the 1820

CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP: MAIN WEBSITE

September 24, 2013 on 1:24 pm | In Blogroll, CFG, World-System | Comments Off on CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP: MAIN WEBSITE

CONTENTS:


Home

Middle East

Globalization

Economic Data

Background Essays

Blogs

CFG Intro

About CFG

CFG Today

CFG Tomorrow

Contact us

Search

WILLIAM STANLEY JEVONS BOOK: “MONEY AND THE MECHANISM OF EXCHANGE” 1875

August 10, 2013 on 11:43 pm | In Books, Economics, Financial, History, United Kingdom | Comments Off on WILLIAM STANLEY JEVONS BOOK: “MONEY AND THE MECHANISM OF EXCHANGE” 1875

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Money and the Mechanism of

Exchange

Jevons, William Stanley (1835-1882)

Preface

In preparing this volume, I have attempted to write a descriptive essay on the past and present monetary systems of the world, the materials employed to make money, the regulations under which the coins are struck and issued, the natural laws which govern their circulation, the several modes in which they may be replaced by the use of paper documents, and finally, the method in which the use of money is immensely economized by the cheque and clearing system now being extended and perfected.

This is not a book upon the currency question, as that question is so often discussed in England. I have only a little to say about the Bank Charter Act, and upon that, and other mysteries of the money market, I refer my readers to the admirable essay of Mr. Bagehot on “Lombard Street,” to which this book may perhaps serve as an introduction.

There is much to be learnt about money before entering upon those abstruse questions, which barely admit of decided answers. In studying a language, we begin with the grammar before we try to read or write. In mathematics, we practice ourselves in simple arithmetic before we proceed to the subtleties of algebra and the differential calculus. But it is the grave misfortune of the moral and political sciences, as well shown by Mr. Herbert Spencer, in his “Study of Sociology,” that they are continually discussed by those who have never laboured at the elementary grammar or the simple arithmetic of the subject. Hence the extraordinary schemes and fallacies every now and then put forth.

Currency is to the science of economy what the squaring of the circle is to geometry, or perpetual motion to mechanics. If there were a writer on Currency possessing some of the humour and learning of the late Professor De Morgan, he could easily produce a Budget of Currency Paradoxes more than rivalling De Morgan’s Circle-Squaring Paradoxes. There are men who spend their time and fortunes in endeavouring to convince a dull world that poverty can be abolished by the issue of printed bits of paper. I know one gentleman who holds that exchequer bills are the panacea for the evils of humanity. Other philanthropists wish to make us all rich by coining the national debt, or coining the lands of the country, or coining everything. Another class of persons have long been indignant that, in this age of free trade, the Mint price of gold should still remain arbitrarily fixed by statute. A member of Parliament lately discovered a new grievance, and made his reputation by agitating against the oppressive restrictions on the coinage of silver at the Mint. No wonder so many people are paupers when there is a deficiency of shillings and sixpences, and when the amount merely of the rates and taxes paid in a year exceeds the whole sum of money circulating in the kingdom.

The subject of money as a whole is a very extensive one, and the literature of it would fill a very great library. Many changes are now taking place in the currencies of the world, and important inquiries have been lately instituted concerning the best mode of constituting the circulating medium. The information on the subject stored up in evidence given before Government Commissions, in reports of International Conferences, or in researches and writings of private individuals, is quite appalling in extent. It has been my purpose to extract from this mass of literature just such facts as seem to be generally interesting and useful in enabling the public to come to some conclusion upon many currency questions which press for solution. Shall we count in pounds, or dollars, or francs, or marks? Shall we have gold or silver, or gold and silver, as the measure of value? Shall we employ a paper currency or a metallic one? How long shall we in England allow our gold coinage to degenerate in weight? Shall we recoin it at the expense of the State or of the unlucky individuals who happen to hold light sovereigns?

In America the questions are still more important and pressing, involving the return to specie payments, the future regulation of the paper currency, its partial replacement by coin, and the exact size and character of the American dollar, regarded in relation to international currency. Germany is in the midst of a great, and probably a sound and successful, reorganization of the currency, both metallic and paper. In France the great debate upon the double versus the single standard is hardly yet terminated, and active measures are being taken to place the paper issues on a convertible basis. Among the other countries of Europe

CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP INTRODUCTION

July 22, 2013 on 2:36 pm | In Books, CFG, Globalization, History, Third World, USA, World-System | Comments Off on CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP INTRODUCTION

“THE MAKING OF THE MODERN WORLD” SERIES:

July 15, 2013 on 8:01 am | In Books, Economics, Globalization, History, Research, World-System | Comments Off on “THE MAKING OF THE MODERN WORLD” SERIES:

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CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP: JULY 2013 UPDATE ON PERSPECTIVE

July 3, 2013 on 1:27 pm | In Books, CFG, Development, Economics, Financial, Globalization, History, Third World, World-System | Comments Off on CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP: JULY 2013 UPDATE ON PERSPECTIVE

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CFG Update:

The Limits of Global Reaganomics and the Need for Global Pro-Third World Economic Institutions.

In our 1984 book

GLOBAL ECONOMY: BIS JULY 2012

July 23, 2012 on 3:14 pm | In Asia, Development, Economics, Eurozone, Globalization, History, Research, World-System | Comments Off on GLOBAL ECONOMY: BIS JULY 2012

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Central bankers’ speeches for 19 and 20 July now available?

Press, Service (press@bis.org)

Fri 7/20/12

Central bankers’ speeches for 20 July 2012
now available on the BIS website

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